ACT Research Forecasts Downturn in Chinese CV Market
ACT Research Co. is forecasting downward pressure on the Chinese commercial vehicle market — but not all segments at once — beginning this year and extending through 2022, driven by higher prices and lower rates.
With increased operating expenses due to rising fuel and equipment costs, and freight rates dropping because of overcapacity, ACT expects structural changes to continue to pressure the Chinese commercial vehicle market, according to the Columbus, Ind.-based company.
Tam
“The downward pressure won’t apply to all subgroups every year. For example, dump truck demand is expected to be up substantially in 2018, due to the [mandated] vehicle replacement requirements,” Robert Perkins, ACT senior global business consultant, said in a statement.
He added ACT anticipates that, in the next five years, policies regarding commercial vehicles in China will focus on being green and safe.
Meanwhile, Vice President Steve Tam said ACT does not know how many U.S. suppliers send product to China.
“Conceptually, U.S. exports account for about 12% of our GDP and China accounts for about 10% of our exports, so around 1% of our GDP. Even if it all went away, the impact to the economy would be negligible.”
Of course, those companies whose exports stop are more severely impacted, Tam said.
