CO2 Rule to Pose Few Hurdles in Initial Round, OEMs Predict

This story appears in the Oct. 25 print edition of Transport Topics.

PHOENIX — Truck and engine makers said that they expect to encounter few obstacles meeting the first round of anticipated new federal fuel efficiency and carbon dioxide standards for heavy-duty trucks expected to become effective in 2014.

During two panel sessions at American Trucking Associations’ Management Conference & Exhibition here last week, company officials said the new standards could be met with existing technologies at relatively low cost.

But these same executives warned that the higher standards likely to take effect in 2017 could be far more difficult to attain, and add substantial cost to the price of large vehicles.

“2014 is not too much of a problem,” said Martin Daum, president and CEO of Daimler Trucks North America. “There is a rich basket of existing technologies to choose from.” But, he added, meeting the 2017 requirements “is not possible without adding cost and complexity to the vehicle.”

Jack Allen, president of the North American Truck Group of Navistar International Corp., agreed, saying, “There will be minimal cost increases with 2014, especially if you’re already SmartWay-compliant.”

SmartWay is a voluntary program created by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to improve the fuel efficiency of large trucks.

Although the government has not yet released its fuel economy standards for heavy trucks, the panelists, who represented all the major original equipment manufacturers in North America, gave their “informed speculation” about the coming rule during the Oct. 19 panels.

The OEMs’ consensus was that the EPA-National Highway Traffic Safety Administration joint effort — which could be released by the end of the month — will regulate carbon dioxide emissions in grams per ton-mile of freight hauled.

That’s a different approach than fuel standards for passenger cars, which are expressed in miles per gallon, and the ton-mile method is more palatable to trucking.

Heavy truck engines would be required to be 3% more efficient by 2014 from a 2010 baseline, and another 2% over the same base by 2017. The engine improvement would be part of an overall vehicle efficiency gain of 25% by 2014 for linehaul equipment.

The rule will be the result of the government’s desire to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

Susan Alt, a vice president of Volvo Trucks North America, waded shoulder-deep into truck classification and configuration, a subject crucial for implementation. She said OEMs have told regulators that there are at least 100 different truck configurations, depending upon the type of work they do.

She said the government will probably boil those 100 down to seven types for weight Classes 7 and 8. Then EPA will calculate an average for carbon dioxide per ton-mile and that will be the standard for a given configuration.

Alt said she expects truck manufacturers will be told to improve vehicle aerodynamics, idle reduction, tires and weight — in addition to the changes that come from engine makers.

Alt said regulators should be urged to “recognize as many applications as possible.” Trucks that do not perform well against other models in their classification in terms of output per ton-mile could well be discontinued.

“I think the variation among trucks that do the same job will decline,” Navistar’s Allen said.

Craig Brewster, a Paccar Inc. vice president, said, “We also want regulators to recognize vehicle diversity and avoid unintended consequences.”

“Long and tall cowboy trucks will go away,” said Bill Kozek, general manager of Paccar’s Kenworth Trucks. Although the classic long-nose tractors are popular among some operators, they have such aerodynamic drag that OEMs will stop selling them because of the penalties they will have to endure.

“EPA wants to raise the average for efficiency, not just improve the worst,” Kozek said, adding that will probably cause “the death of the W900L” at his company, and the elimination of “long and tall” trucks at Peterbilt Motors, Kenworth’s Paccar Inc. stable mate.

Steve Charlton, chief technical officer for engine maker Cummins Inc., said there may be more improvements to be wrung out of existing equipment. “We’ve been developing diesel engine efficiency for years, but there’s still a long way we can go,” he said.

It was Charlton who labeled the comments of the panelists “informed speculation.” All of the manufacturers have been helping EPA and NHTSA as they develop the rules and so have a sense of what the agencies have been considering.

Regarding 2017, Daum related an anecdote about solar panels on trailer roofs that would generate air conditioning. “It worked, but it was too expensive,” he said.

“If you give me seven years and none of you care about the costs, this is easy. The problem is that the first thing a lawmaker disregards is the cost,” Daum said.

Departing ATA Chairman Tommy Hodges moderated the afternoon panel; the morning panel was hosted by Howard S. Abramson, editorial director of Transport Topics.

Hodges said that he and most ATA members would be eager to acquire vehicles that get 7.5 miles per gallon, up from the current 6 mpg, but he worried about the costs and the details.

“There’s no telling what this rule would look like without involvement from ATA lawyers,” Hodges said.