The Coming Freight Crunch

This Editorial appears in the Nov. 29 print edition of Transport Topics. Click here to subscribe today.

When the next freight transportation capacity shortage makes itself known, whether it’s in the second half of next year or at the start of 2012, no one should say they weren’t warned well in advance.

And when federal regulators and politicians and shippers come looking for targets at which to point their fingers, they may need to find their mirrors.

Transport Topics readers don’t need to be reminded, but let’s get it on the record one more time: U.S. freight transport capacity has declined.

The recession has driven many fleets out of business. The survivors have become savvier and have reduced their capacity by trimming their fleets to more closely mirror the demand for their services from shippers.

In addition, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration is in the process of implementing its landmark new safety program — Compliance, Safety and Accountability, or CSA. Estimates are that this new program will lead to the exodus of as many as 10% of existing drivers, who will find themselves unemployable as a result of the new program, which will penalize fleets that employ drivers with poor safety ratings.

Also, FMCSA’s latest revision of the federal hours-of-service rules for commercial drivers will be released soon, and most insiders are guessing that the maximum allowable driving time will be cut to 10 hours a day from the current 11 hours. That change would amount to a 9% cut in allowable driver hours and means a significant number of new drivers will need to be hired to deliver the same amount of freight.

So, when the economic recovery expands — and virtually all analysts expect it will do just that as 2011 unfolds — and as freight delivery demand expands, there are not going to be enough trucks and drivers to meet that demand.

Add to this situation the seeming inability of the political establishment to face up to the infrastructure needs of this nation and the refusal to provide the funding to fix and expand our road and bridge network, and the situation gets even bleaker.

We have become accustomed to just-in-time delivery at the manufacturing level and right-when-I-want-it delivery on the retail level. And we’ve gotten used to the lower prices that productivity gains have allowed in the transportation sector.

When the capacity crunch comes, we will be faced with some new realities, including potentially slower delivery times and higher costs. What we shouldn’t be is surprised.