Editorial: Stay the Course

Last week, the Federal Reserve, which has been keeping interest rates at rock bottom, agreed to continue holding short-term rates near zero for the next couple of years. The Fed said that economic growth is somewhat uncertain: Employment has improved only slightly, and as anyone involved with housing construction knows, that industry is still not out of the woods.

But in the background, there are some voices, including on the Fed’s policy-setting board, warning that there’s a danger of too much stimulation, which could lead to inflation. Fortunately, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a widely reported press conference after the Fed’s announcement, said it’s “a little premature to declare victory” in its drive to stimulate the economy.

That’s good news, especially because the fragile economic recovery is evident to the trucking industry.

For example, the latest truck tonnage report from American Trucking Associations isn’t bad, but it isn’t good, either. Just sort of middlin’, with lots to wonder about.

The actual numbers — a gain of 2.7% from a year ago in March and a slight increase from February — tell the story of an economy that is growing slowly.

The March tonnage increase was the smallest year-over year gain since December 2009. Tonnage increases for the past few months have been smaller than they were much of last year — for example, tonnage had a 10% jump last December but grew 5.5% or less in each of the past three months.

“March tonnage, and the first quarter overall, was reflective of an economy that is growing, but growing moderately,” said Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist. He advised not to expect growth this year to match the 5.8% pace in 2011 and 2010 and instead to look for “a more moderate rate, perhaps less than 3%.” Not bad, but not great, either.

No one knows for sure, of course, but some decision-makers are taking no chances. For example, Paccar Inc., which makes Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks, noticed a pause in new orders and quickly cut back production, laying off 10% of its workers at the Chillicothe, Ohio, Kenworth factory.

And trailer makers are seeing a slowing in orders, which dropped 30% in March from a year earlier.

So, we agree with the Fed that it’s too early to declare victory. Let’s hope the Fed keeps interest rates low until it’s clear that the economy is well on its way to a healthy growth rate.