Feb. Truck Orders Up 30%

This story appears in the March 10 print edition of Transport Topics.

New Class 8 truck orders climbed 30.2% in February from a year ago, completing the strongest three-month span in almost eight years, ACT Research Co. reported.

February’s preliminary net orders total of 29,200 was “well above expectations,” driven by tight freight capacity and growing confidence in the economy, ACT Vice President Steve Tam said.

Last month’s total easily surpassed the 22,432 orders placed in February 2013 but was down 15.5% from January’s tally of 34,558, which was the largest monthly figure since April 2011.

However, the 95,455 orders booked from December through February were the strongest since January through March 2006, when fleets were scrambling to order trucks for delivery prior to the 2007 federal emission standards.

Tam attributed the recent surge in orders to economic improvement and tight freight hauling capacity, as evidenced by recent escalation in spot rates.

“As we’re moving forward, truckers are becoming more confident in the economy, and they’re starting to act on that,” Tam said. “They’re starting to feel that capacity crunch, and they don’t want to get left behind. They want to get into the game and make sure they have the equipment they need to participate to the best of their ability.”

Another research firm, FTR, said its preliminary data pegged February net orders at 28,876, a 27% year-over-year gain.

FTR Vice President Don Ake said the truck market is “now officially in a growth cycle.”

“The confidence in the industry is picking up steam, and we expect 2014 to be a healthy year for Class 8 trucks,” he said.

Truck manufacturers expressed optimism about the strong order activity.

“The Class 8 truck industry is experiencing extraordinary growth, as evidenced by the first two months of orders in 2014,” said David Hames, general manager of marketing and strategy at Daimler Trucks North America, which builds Freightliner and Western Star trucks.

Navistar Inc.’s February order intake for its International trucks was 67% higher than the average monthly level during its fiscal first quarter ended Jan. 31, Chief Operating Officer Jack Allen said on the company’s March 5 earnings call.

At the end of that quarter, Navistar’s backlog was up 56% year-over-year and up 10% from the previous quarter, he said.

Navistar maintained its industry outlook of 220,000 to 230,000 Class 8 retail sales in the United States and Canada this year, but Allen said the company will “continue to monitor this closely as fleet volumes, fleet profitability and recent order intake indicates there could be some upside here.”

“We’re very encouraged by what we’re seeing from an order intake standpoint, and we do think the industry is poised to be higher than maybe what we had estimated,” he added.

Other truck makers did not respond to a request for comment before Transport Topics’ deadline.

ACT forecasts that full-year North American Class 8 production will rise to 275,200 units, which would be up about 12% from last year and the highest level since 2006.

In light of the recent strength in order activity, however, the firm may raise that forecast, Tam said.

The past few months’ orders have added to manufacturers’ backlogs, which stood at 105,700 units at the end of January, according to ACT. Tam said February’s orders probably boosted the backlog to about 113,000 units, adding further pressure on truck makers to consider raising their build rates.

Over the past few years, truck buyers have been waiting longer before deciding to place their orders, but during the most recent two quarters, that trend has started to reverse, Tam said. Fleets are beginning to put their orders on the books further in advance, which gives truck makers better visibility to customer demand, he said.

ACT projects that the average age of the U.S. Class 8 truck population will drop to 6.2 years by year’s end, compared with 6.5 years at the end of 2013, as carriers continue to replenish their fleets by replacing their oldest equipment.

February’s order rate, combined with an expanding backlog, likely will be enough to support higher build schedules for the second quarter, analyst David Leiker said in a March 5 note to clients of Robert W. Baird & Co.

“Positively for the industry, Class 8 order strength appears to be driven by underlying fundamentals,” he said, namely higher freight demand and “healthy” spot rates.

Baird now estimates that 2014 production will rise 10% to 270,000 units, Leiker said.

“People are getting more confident in buying trucks,” said John Anderson, advisory director of Greenbriar Equity Group, speaking on a conference call. “The market is slowly coming back.”

Greenbriar owns Western Peterbilt, which operates 11 dealerships.

Senior Reporter Rip Watson contributed to this story.