Fed’s Kashkari Says Only Inflation Could Derail December Cut
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Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he’ll be looking at incoming inflation data to determine whether another interest-rate cut is appropriate at the U.S. central bank’s December meeting.
Asked what could cause policymakers to pause next month, he said: “There’d have to be a surprise on the inflation front to change the outlook so dramatically.”
“If we saw inflation surprises to the upside between now and then, that might give us pause,” Kashkari said Nov. 12 at the Yahoo Finance Invest conference. “It’d be hard to imagine the labor market really heats up between now and December. There’s just not that much time.”
The U.S. central bank lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point Nov. 7, its second consecutive cut. While Fed officials’ September projections suggested quarter-point cuts at both the November and December meetings, investors have pared back bets for a reduction at the final meeting of the year amid stalled progress on inflation and robust growth.
A recent report showed the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation rose in September by the most since April. A slowdown in hiring in October largely reflected the impact from hurricanes and a labor strike. Consumer spending remained robust, and the economy expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.
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Kashkari repeated that the economy is strong, but inflation hasn’t fully declined to the Fed’s 2% target. It may take a year or two for price gains to reach that target given the above-average pace of housing inflation, he said, though he called a cooling there “encouraging.”
The Minneapolis Fed chief said the neutral rate of interest — where monetary policy neither stimulates nor weighs on the economy — may be higher right now amid stronger productivity growth. That could lead policymakers to reduce rates less than previously expected over the coming months.
While the exact level of neutral is uncertain right now, policymakers will get a feel for it over the coming year, Kashkari said, adding that policy is “modestly restrictive” right now.
