Freight Tonnage Index Rises 5.7%

October truck tonnage rose 5.7% above year-ago levels, continuing a streak of nearly two years of continuous growth that has moved the freight barometer within hailing distance of the record level it hit almost seven years ago, according to American Trucking Associations.

The trade group reported Nov. 22 that its widely watched freight index reached 116.3 last month, continuing the growth pattern that began in December 2009 and pushing the index to its highest level since January. ATA’s index peaked in January 2005 at 121.6.

On a month-to-month basis, tonnage rose 0.5% from September to October, which was less than the 1.6% month-to-month improvement from August to September.

“Tonnage readings continue to show that economy is growing and not sliding back into recession,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “Manufacturing output has been the primary reason why truck freight volumes are increasing more than GDP,” Costello said.

One manufacturing strong point is light-vehicle production, whose growth totaled 7% in the third quarter and should approach 10% in this quarter, James Meil, chief economist for Eaton Corp., told TT last week.

“That sector is always important for the economy in general, the manufacturing sector and for truck transportation,” he said.

“October was good,” said Kevin Burch, CEO of Jet Express Inc., Dayton, Ohio, whose primary business is hauling for automobile manufacturers. Jet Express business from automakers last month continued a pattern that has increased almost 10% this year, he added.

On the other hand, Burch said, business for other freight services has “moved sideways,” showing little improvement and forcing fleets such as Jet Express to focus on improving efficiency by taking such steps as doubling the interval between oil changes.

Comments during a recent industry meeting that included the Transportation Intermediaries Association, National Industrial Transportation League and the Intermodal Association of North America underscored the slow-growth theme.

“We feel we have made some progress in restoring business volumes,” said Roy Slagle, tapped earlier this year to become president of ABF Freight System as of Jan. 1, though he conceded that, in general, freight levels “are pretty flat.”

Trucking also is being helped from the consumer side, as shown by the 2.3% increase in consumption reported by the U.S. Commerce Department.

“While manufacturing output provides a significant amount of truck freight, consumer spending is also very important for trucking and even more important for the overall economy, representing about 70% of GDP,” Costello said in a report last week. “We are expecting a good, but not great, increase in holiday sales, up a little over 4% from last year.”

Other assessments of October freight markets also signaled modest growth.

Investment bank Robert W. Baird & Co.’s trucking index for October rose 2% year-over-year, matching the third-quarter pace, the firm said in its Nov. 16 report.

Cass Information Systems’ October freight index of shipments in all modes of transportation rose 2.2% year-over-year, and the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, based on truck fuel-card purchases, was 1.3% higher than the comparable period last year.

Also on Nov. 22, the Commerce Department revised downward its third-quarter gross domestic product figure to a 2% annual rate from its initial estimate of 2.5%, which Meil characterized as an “in-between number.”

“It’s better than a loss,” he said, referring to the 2% GDP increase, “but it is not a win.”

Meil summed up current conditions by saying, “Things aren’t as bad as we feared they could be,” given the political uncertainty this summer and broad concern about another recession.

The 2% economic growth rate, while slower than the earlier Commerce Department assessment, still was an improvement over the meager increases of 0.4% in the first quarter and 1.3% in the second quarter.

“The stage is set for a nice little rebound in the fourth quarter,” Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS, told Bloomberg News on Nov. 22. He said he expects GDP to expand by 2.5% to 3% this quarter.

One possible reason for optimism was the agency’s report that inventories fell for the first time since late 2009, creating the prospect for replenishment during the fourth quarter, Bloomberg News reported.

While inventory restocking may help trucking, another economic barometer — Asian imports through West Coast ports — was negative.

In total, container shipments declined about 10% through Southern California ports, which account for about 40% of U.S. containerized freight, as a decrease in imports was barely dented by a slight rise in exports.

The total reflected a 5% increase at the Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s largest port, and a drop of 20% at Long Beach, the second-biggest port.

Costello said he expects continued economic growth in 2012 but at a slower pace, though he didn’t offer a specific growth forecast.

“The industrial sector should slow next year but still grow more than GDP, which means truck tonnage can increase faster than GDP, too.”

ATA’s unadjusted tonnage index was 118.5, or 4.8 percentage points above October of last year.