This Editorial appears in the Aug. 1 print edition of Transport Topics. Click here to subscribe today. The latest tonnage report from American Trucking Associations shows that freight levels in June were 6.8% higher than they were a year ago, the biggest gain in five months.
The report could be the first evidence that the slowdown in the economic recovery that appeared in the spring has ended.
While the wrenching debate over raising the federal debt limit has sent the stock market down sharply and could be adversely affecting business investment, there are clear signs that business is picking up for many enterprises.
In all, for the first half of 2011, the volume of freight handled by motor carriers gained 5.5% over the same period in 2010. While this is hardly a business boom, the growth rate is substantially higher than the growth projected by many economists for the nation’s gross domestic product this year.
For months now, we’ve been reporting on the boom in new heavy-duty truck sales, with this year’s total now 46.3% higher than 2010. In June, sales were actually 64.6% higher.
And, as we’ve reported, everyone seems to agree that this sales boom consists almost completely of replacement vehicles, with few fleets reporting that they are expanding their capacity.
The sales rise already has taxed the nation’s truck makers and their suppliers.
We report this week that parts shortages are apparently worsening and may have led some manufacturers to halt production temporarily. We do know that some of the manufacturers are reporting that they are unlikely to be able to sell as many trucks as they have orders for during the year and may have to push some deliveries into 2012.
The latest tonnage report raises the likelihood that fleets may need to expand their fleets to handle the new business that could be in the wings during the second half of the year.
One wonders where fleets are going to find the necessary vehicles to deliver the freight, if truck makers are already suffering shortages at current order levels.
The recession and the resulting dive in new-truck sales the past two years have pretty much depleted the late-model used-truck option and have helped push prices up for fleets that are the second and third owners of equipment.
It seems that the days of too little freight may soon be replaced by days of too few trucks.
