OEMs Predict 10% Share For Nat-Gas Trucks by 2020

This story appears in the May 12 print edition of Transport Topics.

LONG BEACH, Calif. — Executives with truck manufacturers said they agree with their projections from a year ago that natural-gas trucks will account for 10% of the Class 8 market by 2020.

They made their projections at the annual Alternative Clean Transportation Expo, held here May 5-8.

However, even as compressed and liquefied natural gas make gains in the industry, “diesel will remain the predominant fuel for heavy-duty vehicles in the near- and medium-term future,” said Denny Slagle, CEO of Volvo Group’s North American trucks.

“There’s always been some true believers [of] natural gas, but its sudden abundance has brought the dialogue into focus,” Slagle said.

“I think as more data begins to materialize, the comfort level [with natural gas] increases,” said Bob Carrick, manager of natural-gas sales for Freightliner Trucks.

Carrick said that the push by shippers to get more carriers to use alternative fuels “is going to accelerate the market adoption of natural gas.”

“What we’re trying to communicate to our customers [about natural gas] is, don’t wait,” said Andy Douglas, national sales manager for Kenworth Truck Co.

But while trucks’ fuel economy generally is similar to diesel — in the “high 5s to low 6s” — there is about a 10% fuel-degradation penalty in using spark-ignited nat-gas engines, Douglas said.

Mack, Volvo, Freightliner, Kenworth and Peterbilt displayed the latest Class 8 models featuring LNG- or CNG-powered engines on the Expo floor.

Many speakers said that Cummins Westport’s 11.9 liter engine — commonly referred to as the 12-liter — released last August has bolstered use of CNG and LNG in trucking.

Cummins Westport has sold about 3,000 12-liters since its introduction, said Tim Frazier, director of engineering for the joint venture of Cummins Inc. and Westport Innovations.

“We’re seeing a lot of activity and are really pleased,” Frazier told Transport Topics. He said sales this year have been “a little slower than we hoped for,” but many users were reporting fuel economy higher than 6 mpg.

“I think we’ve seen enough feedback on the [Cummins Westport] natural-gas engine and enough positive results indicating that it has been very well-accepted,” said Charles Cook, marketing manager of vocational products for Peterbilt Motors Co.

Executives disagreed on projections for CNG versus LNG. Some predicted it would be equal by 2020, but Carrick and Douglas said CNG could be significantly higher, at 70% to 80%, versus LNG.

“Once [fleets’] homework is done, it looks like the longhaul is going to be a good use for LNG,” said Frank Bio, Volvo Trucks’ director of sales development for alternate fuels.

Volvo plans to roll out its 13-liter LNG engine that will use high-pressure direct-injection technology using small amounts of diesel by late 2015, Slagle said.

He added that the federal government should offer tax incentives to truck makers, including a reduction in the federal excise tax for alternative fuel-related costs such as nat-gas fuel tanks.

Slagle said that regulatory agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency and California Air Resources Board should “work with the industry” on the next round of greenhouse-gas regulations, and that the rules should be “based on complete component and system dynamics.”

Ken Vieth, who tracks natural-gas trucking trends for ACT Research Co. and attended ACT Expo, told TT the industry “has been going through a learning curve” for the past few years.

“After this year, you’ll see steady growth and acceleration into 2015 and beyond,” he said of natural gas.

Peterbilt is targeting about 2,000 natural-gas truck sales this year, a double-digit percentage growth from last year, Cook said after the session.

Freightliner’s NGV sales have jumped by 1½ times from 750 in 2012 to 1,200 last year. They are on target for 1,600 this year, Carrick told TT.

While declining specific numbers, Roy Horton, powertrain product marketing manager for Mack Trucks, said that Mack’s natural-gas sales “have met our expectations and then some. . . . Having said that, it’s still a niche product in the marketplace.”

“It’s a really exciting time for all alternative fuels, and there seems to be increasing roles for all fuels and technologies,” Horton told TT at the conclusion of the OEM panel, which was standing-room only in a large conference room.

Erik Neandross, CEO of conference sponsor Gladstein, Neandross & Associates, said ACT Expo’s attendance broke a record with more than 3,700 attendees, topping last year’s 3,100 total in Washington.