Opinion: The Dawn of Autonomous Driving?

By Neil Abt

Editorial Director

As I watched the video of a man sitting passively in the driver seat, I marveled at just how easily the vehicle managed to properly steer itself. What amazed me even further was when I was told the footage was from the 1950s.

The video was part of a presentation by Sabina Jeschke, a mechanical engineering professor at a German university, whose credentials include a research stint with NASA.

She was one of several speakers at a July 3 event in Magdeburg, Germany, part of Daimler Trucks’ debut of its Future Truck 2025, a vehicle able to drive itself (coverage of the event was included in the July 14 print edition of Transport Topics).

Jeschke provided a history of autonomous-driving vehicles and compared the maturity of the technology with the dawning of a new industrial revolution. Anyone listening to her would be hard-pressed not to come away more inclined to support this technology, as well as others such as Google’s driverless car or the “road caravans” being developed by a number of truck makers around the world.

However, it likely will be a more difficult process to persuade government regulators, the motoring public and maybe even some in the trucking industry to embrace this idea.

• The regulations question

During the on-highway demonstration of Daimler’s autonomous-driving truck, I could not help but think about former Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.

It was during his tenure that distracted driving on the nation’s highways became a significant safety issue, fueled by the dramatic growth of smart phones.

LaHood received great praise for raising the public’s consciousness on the issue, which has led many states to ban texting while driving. Since replacing LaHood as Department of Transportation chief, Anthony Foxx has said distracted driving would “receive my full efforts.”

Despite those efforts, anyone who spends time on U.S. highways can see distracted driving remains a major problem. And from what I saw in my travels in Germany, many drivers there also struggle to disconnect from their phones when behind the wheel.

Today’s truck drivers face an image problem — one the “Trucking Moves America Forward” campaign is attempting to address.

That image problem makes it hard to see how DOT officials could craft a campaign to win over public support for autonomous-driving trucks. How exactly does one go about persuading the motoring public to put down their phones, while the trucker traveling alongside is using his or her tablet for work duties, and not be actively watching the road ahead?

• The Google question

Another interesting piece of Daimler’s event was how many times Google was mentioned.

Wolfgang Bernhard, head of Daimler’s global trucks and business division, discussed Google several times in a competitive sense, warning that a failure by Germany and the European Union to promote the use of autonomous vehicles would open the door to a non-European company gaining the upper hand in this sector.

Similarly, he used Google’s driverless technology as a counterpoint — a way to differentiate the safety benefits Daimler’s “Highway Pilot” offers.

But when thinking about how radical a change in public thinking has to take place to pave the way for these technologies, it seems at some point these and other “competitors” may also need to cooperate.

• The industry question

Even if the concept wins the broad regulatory and public support that will be required, there are several business factors that likely will come into play.

First is the cost of these vehicles. The price tag for new trucks has risen dramatically over the past decade, as they have become more sophisticated with safety technologies and more emissions control systems to meet U.S. regulations.

Bernhard declined to address cost estimates of the Future Truck, saying it would be premature to discuss specifics. He did acknowledge the need to keep the price tag in a competitive range.

Another sticking point in the United States could be driver acceptance, especially when it comes to pay.

Daimler said a truck could top out at just under 53 miles per hour when in “Highway Pilot” mode.

The upside of being able to conduct other duties while still in the driver seat — or just relaxing from the stress of the road while in motion — were clear at the demonstration.

What was not as clear was how willing a driver paid by the mile would be to sacrifice running at slower speeds in return for that more relaxing work environment. Daimler officials made a compelling case that their technology would transform truckers into “logistics experts” and real-time “logistics managers.”

For that to truly happen, the fleets that one day use these vehicles would need to change their operations so a driver can take on those additional responsibilities. That likely will require drivers to be paid differently, since they no longer are just delivering the freight.

As these technologies continue to develop, prices will come down and top speeds will go up. But even if the origins of autonomous-driving vehicles date back 60 years or more, it remains so new in the public sphere, years of public relations and education campaigns likely remain before that next industrial revolution can truly take hold.