Trucking to Grow 26% Over the Next Decade

This story appears in the March 16 print edition of Transport Topics.

Despite the current economic climate, the nation’s freight pool is likely to grow 26% over the next 11 years, meaning the long-term outlook for all haulers is bright, according to a new American Trucking Associations report.

ATA’s annual “U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to . . . 2020” found that trucking will continue to “dominate” the transportation landscape, increasing its total freight share to 70.9% in 2020 from 68.8% in 2008, based on the most recent data.

However, all freight transportation modes, including air to rail, water and pipeline, are expected to be robust, according to the analysis contained in the forecast.

“Like many other industries, trucking is experiencing a very difficult time during the current economic recession,” said ATA President Bill Graves. “Yet, all signs point to a strong, vital, long-term future for our industry. Trucking exclusively serves 80% of all communities in the U.S. for the products and goods they receive. When the recovery begins, trucks will help lead the way.”

For the first time, this year’s report includes in-depth analysis of regional economies and freight tonnage origins in the United States.

“I would say this is probably the most comprehensive we’ve done,” said Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist.

As in past years, ATA commissioned IHS Global Insight, a consulting and research firm, to develop the Forecast.

“We all focus on how big is a truck, how big is rail, how big is this or that,” Costello said. “But . . . if you’re a trucking company or if you’re a railroad,” he added, the report focuses on what’s going to drive the freight business.

“I can say, you know what, look at this, the Middle Atlantic’s going to show some strong growth over the next 10 years or the next 12 years, maybe we need to be more focused in the Middle Atlantic,” Costello said.

Besides projections on manufacturing and consumer spending, the report contains projections on business investment, trade, employment, housing starts, vehicle sales, as well as other key drivers of freight.

ATA said it will conduct a Webinar in April to answer questions from those who buy the report and to review key findings in its economic analysis.

The report can be purchased at www.ATABusinessSolutions.com or by calling 1-866-821-3468.