World Trade Growth Expected to Be Lower Than Previously Forecast, WTO Says
Growth in world trade will settle at 2.8% this year, lower than a previous forecast of 3.9%, the World Trade Organization forecast on April 7.
WTO expects trade to rise to 3.6% in 2017, breaking through 3.0% for the first time in six years. Its forecasts are based on economic growth of 2.4% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017.
Over the past five years, WTO has regularly revised preliminary estimates downward because of overly optimistic predictions of economic recovery. Since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, trade has grown approximately in line with global economic growth, rather than twice as fast in the years before the recession.
Risks to its latest forecasts were still mostly on the downside, including a sharper than expected slowing of China's economy, worsening financial market volatility and exposure of countries with large foreign debts to sharp exchange rate movements.
"However, there is also some limited scope for upside potential, if monetary policy which is already in place succeeds in lifting the euro area," WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said at a news conference.
Global goods trade grew by 2.8% in 2015, based on volume, but in value terms, exports slumped by 13.5% as a rising dollar and collapsing commodity prices hammered the value of exports in every region.
The value of services exports also fell, by 6.4%, although that, too, was exacerbated by the commodities slowdown, as dry bulk cargo shipping prices fell to record lows.
