Global oil markets face a surplus of more than 1 million barrels a day next year as Chinese demand continues to falter, the International Energy Agency said.

OPEC cut its oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next for a fourth consecutive month as it belatedly recognized a slowdown in top consumer China.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East and U.S. relations with China pose the greatest concerns for Big Oil, according to some of the industry’s top executives.

Saudi Arabia and allied oil producing countries said Nov. 3 they would postpone a plan to gradually increase oil output until the end of the year, extending their output cuts by one month.

OPEC and its allies aren’t likely to bring oil output back this year because producers are “making huge money” from refined products, according to Rystad Energy.

Global oil prices are falling sharply after a retaliatory strike by Israel over the weekend targeted Iranian military sites rather than its energy infrastructure as had been feared.

OPEC trimmed its forecasts for oil demand growth this year and next for a third consecutive month as the group belatedly recognizes a slowdown in global fuel use.

OPEC doubled down on forecasts that global oil demand will keep growing to the middle of the century, an outlier view that scientists say would lead to climate catastrophe.

OPEC+ has staved off an oil surplus this year by deciding to restrain production a little longer. But the temporary fix won’t hold back the supply glut awaiting global markets in 2025.

OPEC+ clinched a deal to pause its planned oil output hike for two months after prices plunged amid fragile demand.