Editorial: Prosperity Building

Another week has brought with it more signs that trucking is growing. Specifically, IHS Automotive reported that the U.S. heavy-duty truck fleet grew to its largest size on record during the first quarter, and ACT Research Co. said new trailer orders rose 20.2% in April from a year earlier.

In both cases, replacement orders were cited as reasons for the growth. At the same time, the data show that many fleets are beginning to expand, albeit at a slow pace.

Gary Meteer Sr., director of global commercial vehicle products at IHS, said the “economy is good, but it’s nothing to write home about.” At the same time, though, he noted growth in new truck orders in recent months made it likely the Class 8 fleet will continue to grow.

“There has to come a time when those orders turn into sales and start getting registered,” he said.

New trailer orders have remained strong, totaling 111,317 through the first four months of 2014. That is up 43.8% from 77,395 in the same timeframe last year.

ACT analyst Frank Maly suggested tightening capacity is “finally getting [carriers] to realize that there really is enough demand out there for them to put more equipment on the road.”

Even amid what appeared to be a negative report — gross domestic product falling at a 1% annualized rate in the first quarter — there were several silver linings.

The Commerce Department said May 22 the economy contracted for the first time since the final quarter of 2011. The downward revision followed an initial estimate of a 0.1% growth pace for the January-to-March period.

However, economists, including American Trucking Associations’ Bob Costello, were quick to point out much of the decline was due to less inventory building.

Stockpiles grew at less than half the pace of the final three months of 2013, trimming 1.6 percentage points off GDP. The reduction in the first quarter will help boost demand to restock shelves in the coming quarters.

In addition, the Commerce report showed that consumer spending increased at a 3.1% annualized rate in the first quarter.

As with any economic outlook — especially when talking about trucking — the obvious pitfalls of the driver shortage, infrastructure needs, hours of service and other regulations all need to be mentioned.

Yet, as 2014 enters its sixth month, there continues to be a feeling that this one could be remembered far more fondly than many recently completed years.