FTR: Class 8 Truck Production Outpacing Expectations
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North American Class 8 truck production continues to outperform expectations, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence Senior Analyst – Commercial Vehicles Dan Moyer.
FTR expects North American Class 8 factory shipments to total 308,200 vehicles, down 6.6% year over year, but an increase of 23.9% compared with the research group’s March forecast of 248,800 vehicles.
Speaking at the FTR Transportation Conference 2024 in Indianapolis, Moyer said he would have expected build levels to decline, but that has not happened.
Truck production remains at a high level, Moyer said, largely because original equipment manufacturers do not want to lay off employees ahead of an expected upturn in the freight market and increase in purchases ahead of the introduction of the Environmental Protection Agency 2027 nitrogen oxide emissions regulations.
Moyer
FTR raised its Class 8 production outlook for 2025 as a result too. Currently, FTR expects 280,000 trucks to be built in 2025, a 7.1% increase compared with a March forecast of 265,000 trucks.
Inventories are at record levels as a result of the increased production and a decline in sales, Moyer told conference attendees, reaching 86,100 in July, an increase of 4% month on month and jump of 48% year on year.
Since the middle of 2022, build levels have ranged between 25,000 and 30,000, but shipments declined in the spring of 2024 due to a mirror supply problem.
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Trucks that are built but not shipped are known as red tag units. Factory shipments were higher than expected in June through August due to the red tag units, he said.
As a result of the steadier-than-expected build rate, backlogs at truck makers and lead times for customers are waning.
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Backlogs declined 11% month over month and 35% year on year in July to 109,800 vehicles, according to FTR data.
Lead times are normally four to six months, but June was at the bottom of that range and July was around 4.2 months, which typically would indicate a cut in production.
Truck makers’ confidence in the coming months may be tested by the upcoming start of the traditional order season.
April through August usually sees low order numbers. “A lot of us are keen to see where orders start coming in this month,” Moyer said, particularly as August saw a 2% month-on-month increase, when typically orders increase 20% month on month.
Looking further forward, however, OEMs will be more confident. FTR has lifted its 2026 North American Class 8 production forecast to 352,000 trucks from 318,500 in March.
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