Fuel Economy, Driver Issues Lead Fleets to Automatic Transmissions, Study Finds
By Jonathan S. Reiskin, Associate News Editor
This story appears in the Jan. 17 print edition of Transport Topics. Click here to subscribe today.
Concerns about fuel efficiency and the need to attract new drivers to the industry continue to put pressure on heavy- and medium-duty fleets in North America and Western Europe to adopt manual automated and fully automatic transmissions for their vehicles, according to a study from consulting firm Frost & Sullivan.
Researchers found that medium-duty and European fleets were the most eager to make the changes, but even among heavy-duty North American truckers, usage is growing — although it is not yet close to a majority.
“The two main issues driving these changes are the driver shortage, with carriers seeking to entice new drivers, and the adoption of hybrid powertrains. Because of the constant shifting between [diesel and alternative] power sources, you have to use an automated manual or an automatic transmission. You can’t use a manual transmission,” said Sandeep Kar, a Frost & Sullivan manager in Toronto for commercial vehicle research.
In looking at the combined truck market of North America and Western Europe, heavy- and medium-duty, Frost & Sullivan estimated that use of manual transmissions will decline to 40.5% in 2017 from 50.9% of vehicles sold last year. Over the same time, F&S said, the proportion of automated manuals will rise to 36.7% from 34.9%, and fully automatic transmissions will increase to 22.8% of trucks from 14.2%.
The study, which was released in December, defines an automated manual as a transmission that uses sensors, processors and actuators to shift gears without a clutch at the command of the driver.
The main redoubt for manual transmissions is North American trucks in Classes 6-8, but even there, the appeal of automatics and automateds is gaining. F&S estimated that the manual market share for Class 8 will dip to 71% in 2017 from 77% last year. In Class 7, a decline to 59% from 66% is expected, and in Class 6 the anticipated drop is to 51% from 57%.
“On the heavy end, manual transmissions dominate in the United States, but not in Europe,” Kar said.
He added that European fleets are more motivated to switch transmission types because diesel is far more costly there than in the United States. The two types of non-manuals usually get much better mileage, and the heavier traffic makes manual shifting more irritating.
The great hope for manual transmission manufacturers, F&S said, is the coming option of lower-cost trucks.
While many North American fleets will want to buy more expensive transmissions to appeal to potential new drivers who lack a background in trucking, some fleet operators will go for the least-expensive option, the study said.
“North American and European original equipment manufacturers are developing low-cost truck platforms featuring manual transmissions. This is resulting in continued access to manual transmissions in medium- and heavy-duty trucks,” the F&S study said.
