Half a Loaf, Half a Glass

This Editorial appears in the July 6 print edition of Transport Topics. Click here to subscribe today.

Trucking continues to search for irrefutable proof that the worst of the recession is behind us. While that proof has proved elusive, we are seeing some hints that things are improving.

Of course, some of the signs of better days are based on one’s personal perspective: Is the glass half full or half empty?

The latest data from American Trucking Associations on tonnage levels during May are an example. The good news is that the month’s freight total was 3.2% higher than April; the bad news is that the month’s level was 11% below the year-ago total. 

ATA’s seasonally adjusted tonnage index improved to 102.3 in May from 99.2 in April, which was the lowest level since November 2001. On the other hand, that index stood at 115.6 in June 2008, before the worst of the freight drought hit as the economy tanked.

And while ATA’s chief economist, Bob Costello, isn’t prepared to declare the recession over, he is now “hopeful that the worst is behind us.” While not exactly giving a ringing endorsement of the economy’s health, Costello says he believes tonnage levels are at, or near, the bottom.

This week, we also report that orders for new trailers have risen off the floor. The total for April and May was actually higher than the sum of all trailers ordered in either of the past two quarters.

Again, while the growth in business is far from strong, it is noteworthy, and quite possibly a harbinger of better times to come.

Clearly, people are still very worried about the state of the economy, and their belief that the worst is behind us is fragile. For instance, the stock market tumbled last week, when the latest survey showed that consumer confidence had dipped a bit from the previous month.

The Dow Jones industrial average traded down around 100 points for most of June 30 as a result and closed down about 85 points for the day.

While we’d all like to read in Transport Topics one week that the recession has ended and good times have returned, that’s not the way it works.

Slowly, week by week and with fits and starts, things will improve. First — as we’ve seen in many areas — things will stop getting worse. Then, as we’ve seen in a few places, they’ll get better. And the good news will spread, and one day we’ll realize that the sun is shining again.