January truck tonnage jumped 5.3% from a year ago, the biggest year-to-year gain since January 2005, American Trucking Associations said in its seasonally adjusted for-hire truck tonnage index.
The latest gain, which was up 2.4% from December, marked three straight month-to-month gains totaling 5.7%, ATA said late Tuesday.
The not seasonally adjusted index surged 11.4% from December to a reading of 113.6, ATA said.
ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said January’s strength, while a good sign, fell short of a clear signal that truck tonnage is on the road to recovery.
“The economy is either in a mild recession or on the brink of one, and we are hearing anecdotal reports that freight volumes slowed in February,” Costello said. “I anticipate that truck tonnage will recover before the general economy, but I am withholding judgment on whether tonnage is in a recovery mode.”
Truck tonnage, which often leads both recessions and recoveries, has rebounded in some cases before the overall economy actually went into a recession, according to Costello.
ATA calculates the tonnage each month based on reports by its member trucking companies.