Jobless Claims Rise as Post-Holiday Adjustments Continue
More Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week as employers continued to adjust staffing levels after the holidays.
Jobless claims climbed by 8,000 to 285,000 in the week ended Jan. 30, from a revised 277,000 in the prior period, a report from the Labor Department showed Feb 4. The median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for 278,000. The four-week average exceeded 280,000 for a third consecutive week, indicating the pace of firings has increased.
While the uptick in claims bears watching, it also may represent the week-to-week volatility common to claims data around holidays, economists said. Other recent reports show employers are holding on to existing staff and even adding workers as they anticipate sales will improve.
“Claims data are volatile, so we need to see the trend,” Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “Cuts in the energy sector could put upward pressure on claims. If businesses feel the global slowdown worsening, they might start to pull back a bit on hiring. But we haven’t seen that yet.” Other figures show “fairly steady demand for labor.”
Oklahoma estimated data for jobless claims last week because of a glitch in its computer system. Otherwise, nothing unusual was in the figures, a Labor Department spokesman said.
Economists’ estimates in the Bloomberg survey for weekly jobless claims ranged from 265,000 to 295,000. The previous week’s figure initially was reported as 278,000.
The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly claims numbers, increased to 284,750 last week from 282,750. The last time the average exceeded 280,000 for at least three consecutive weeks was in April.
The number of applications dropped as low as 255,000 in mid-July, the lowest in four decades.
The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell by 18,000 to 2.26 million in the week ended Jan. 23. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits held at 1.7%. These data are reported with a one-week lag.
Since early March, claims have been below the 300,000 level that economists say is typically consistent with an improving job market.
Recent data indicate progress in the job market. Companies hired 205,000 workers in January after a 267,000 gain in December, the ADP Research Institute reported Feb. 3.
The national payrolls report, due Feb. 5 from the Labor Department, may show employers took on 190,000 workers last month after a jump of 292,000 in December, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The unemployment rate probably held at 5%, matching the lowest since 2008.
Federal Reserve policymakers, who left the benchmark rate unchanged last month after raising it from zero in December, said labor market conditions have improved. They still expect to raise borrowing costs at a gradual pace and are monitoring the fallout on the United States from the rout in financial markets and a slowdown in overseas economies.
