June Tonnage Index Jumps 5.4%, ATA Says

Truck tonnage in June rose 5.4% from a year earlier, the eighth consecutive year-over-year increase, and the largest year-over-year gain since January 2005, American Trucking Associations said.

Tonnage rose 1.3% from May, the first month-to-month gain since January, ATA said late Tuesday in its monthly for-hire truck tonnage index report.

May tonnage rose 0.5% from the previous month, unchanged from initial reports, ATA said.

The latest year-over-year increase put the seasonally adjusted index at a reading of 116.5, ATA said. The not-seasonally adjusted index gained 1.2%, to a reading of 119.9.

In spite of the gains, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello cautioned that the broader economy could still slow, or fall into recession, dragging tonnage levels down with it.

“It seems that truck tonnage is once again leading the U.S. economy,” Costello said.

“During the 2000-2001 cycle, trucking pulled out of a recession before the aggregate economy fell into one. Unfortunately, truck tonnage could slow later this year as the overall economy is expected to be quite weak in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.”

Costello also noted that U.S. truck capacity appears to have tightened in recent months, as high fuel prices drive some carriers out of business, and prompt others to shrink their fleets. In some cases, carriers are removing trucks from the North American market altogether by selling them to overseas buyers. Both trends are “likely to continue in the near term,” Costello said.

ATA calculates the tonnage each month based on reports by its member trucking companies.