Leading Economic Indicators Climb Less Than Forecast in March

The index of U.S. leading economic indicators increased less than forecast in March, restrained by a drop in building permits.

The Conference Board’s measure of the economic outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.2% in March after falling 0.1% the prior month, the New York-based group said April 21.

The gauge “points to slow, although not slowing, growth in the coming quarters,” Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

“Rebounding stock prices were offset by a decline in housing permits, but nonetheless there were widespread gains among the leading indicators. Financial conditions, as well as expected improvements in manufacturing, should support a modest growth environment in 2016.”

The median forecast of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a 0.4% gain in the index. Estimates ranged from increases of 0.2% to 0.6%. The February reading was revised down from a previously reported 0.1% advance.

Six of the 10 components of the composite measure improved, led by the rebound in stock prices and the spread between short- and long-term interest rates.

A separate report April 21 showed the fewest Americans in four decades filed for jobless benefits last week. The number of applications, which is one of the components of the leading index, dropped to 247,000 in the week ended April 16, the least since 1973, according to the Labor Department. Last week coincided with the period that the government surveys businesses and households to calculate payrolls and the jobless rate for the monthly report, next due May 6.

The Conference Board’s coincident economic index, a measure of current economic activity, was little changed after a 0.1% increase the prior month. The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production — the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S. recessions.

  The gauge of lagging indicators climbed 0.4% last month after advancing 0.5% in February.