Trump Tariff Threat Rippling Through Canada Oil Sector
[Stay on top of transportation news: Get TTNews in your inbox.]
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada — a threat that has been looming for more than a month — is finally starting to disrupt Canada’s oil industry.
Canadian crude prices and shares of the country’s producers had largely shrugged off the danger of an energy trade war since Trump first posted about the tariffs in November. Many speculated that his friendliness to the oil industry and promises to cut U.S. gasoline prices would prompt him to exempt energy products from the levies.
That changed Jan. 13 when Alberta Premier Danielle Smith warned that, after meeting with Trump in Florida over the weekend, she saw no reason to believe oil would be excluded from the tariffs. The comments sent an index of 43 Canadian energy companies down 1.4% Jan. 13, even as global oil prices and U.S. energy stocks rallied.
The tariff threat is now filtering into narrower gauges of crude prices. The price of heavy Canadian crude for delivery in the second quarter in Alberta fell to a discount of $15.75 a barrel below U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude Jan. 14, according to a trader familiar with the prices. That’s down from a $14.70 discount Jan. 13.
Truck Parking Club's Evan Shelley discusses how innovative platforms are turning available space into opportunities for reserved parking. Tune in above or by going to RoadSigns.ttnews.com.
“Any trade barriers that might be imposed on this free flow of trade could have a serious negative impact on the economies and consumers on both sides of the border,” a spokesperson for oil sands producer Cenovus Energy said by email.
RELATED: Diesel Price Rises 4.1¢ to $3.602
U.S. refiners, especially in the Midwest, take nearly all of Canada’s crude oil exports, and all but one of the country’s export pipelines go to the U.S. The newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline to Vancouver allows as much as 15% of Canada’s oil exports to be loaded onto tankers and shipped to Asia.
While Cenovus is partly shielded from the effect of the tariffs by owning production in Canada and refineries in the U.S., other fuel makers in the American Midwest are poised to struggle. In Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio, plants process almost 70% of the Canadian crude imported into the U.S., Cenovus said.
“A 25% tariff on Canadian crude could increase gas prices at the pump by up to 30 cents or more per gallon,” the company said.
Still, the tariff risk isn’t fully priced into Canadian oil and gas shares yet, according to analysts at TD Cowen, who see potential downside of as much as 12% for some stocks.
“It appears that the Canadian oil and gas equities have assumed a very low probability these tariffs will be implemented,” analysts including Aaron Bilkoski and Menno Hulshof said in a report published Jan. 14.
Shares of Veren Inc., Strathcona Resources and Baytex Energy Corp. are likely to fall the most if Trump does follow through on his threat, they said, while higher-margin companies, including PrairieSky Royalty and Topaz Energy Corp. — both energy royalty companies — are likely to see minimal impacts.
The analysts assumed that upstream companies bear a 15% hit to the price of their Canadian production, and that tariffs will be in place for a year.
Want more news? Listen to today's daily briefing below or go here for more info:
