Rep. Lipinski: Time to Think About How to Regulate Self-Driving Vehicles
U.S. Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.) sometimes wonders if he spends too much time thinking about autonomous technology, the scientific term for self-driving vehicles.
"I love this stuff," Lipinski said March 14. He participated in a panel discussion on the topic March 11 at the South by Southwest festival and conference in Austin, Texas.
"I think it's important and it will impact everybody. But sometimes I fear, people looking at this might think, 'Oh, the congressman is wasting his time on something that doesn't matter much.' "
Lipinski holds engineering degrees from Northwestern and Stanford universities and can apply his knowledge as a member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.
Science "geeks" have been excited about autonomous technology for years, but now it's starting to impact everyday life. Uber began testing self-driving cars in Pittsburgh in September. People are beginning to grasp how this technology might impact the economy and jobs.
"Robots could replace 1.7 million American truckers in the next decade," a Los Angeles Times headline declared in September. For a region like the Southland, with its dependence on jobs related to transportation and logistics, autonomous technology could have a huge, disruptive impact.
"This is really going to change our transportation system," Lipinski said. "We already have vehicles on the market that can drive themselves in certain circumstances."
The economic impact is already significant. On March 13, computer chip maker Intel said it was buying the Israeli autonomous technology firm Mobileye for $15.3 billion. Reports about the transaction cited Goldman Sachs projections that the market for self-driving technology would grow from its current $3 billion a year to $96 billion annually by 2025 and $290 billion by 2035.
At SXSW — the acronym for the annual music festival and technology conference — Lipinski took part in a panel discussion about "Self-Driving Cars and the Policy Maze." Since the technology is already here, so is the need to consider how government should regulate it to address issues like safety, privacy and liability.
Lipinski said he believes humans will gradually adopt technology as they become more comfortable letting their vehicles do their driving for them. While sensors and other equipment can perform certain tasks, such as parallel parking, engineers will have to improve artificial intelligence technology before fully autonomous vehicles become widely used.
"All we learn as drivers, all the decisions we make" are influenced by human behavior, he said.
"When we see a pedestrian we look for cues. Will that person step out into the roadway? Those are very difficult things for technology, to pick up cues like that."
Those challenges affect urban situations in particular, impacting industries like ride-sharing and package delivery. It's possible the technology might be perfected enough to allow fully autonomous, long-haul trucks on highways before being allowed in more congested urban settings.
"At risk is one of the most common jobs in many states, and one of the last remaining careers that offer middle-class pay to those without a college degree," the L.A. Times article said. Truckers earn $42,500 on average, plus good benefits, typically.
Drivers likely would still be needed to get trucks in and out of terminals and to pick up and deliver goods once they were off the highway. Truckers of the future might perform roles like tugboat operators that guide big ships in and out of ports, according to the article.
Lipinski said he's aware of the concerns and that there hasn't been much research yet on how self-driving technology could change our lives. The general consensus is that eliminating jobs performed by humans would reduce costs.
"We've not yet started to grapple with how automation is going to change our economy," he told me. "We know there's going to be job displacement at some point. I don't think it's going to be that soon, but it's something we should be thinking about."
The U.S. Department of Transportation issued the first federal guidelines on self-driving technology in September. In the introduction, then-Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx sounded like he was channeling science fiction author Isaac Asimov in his book, "I, Robot."
"Possessing the potential to uproot personal mobility as we know it, to make it safer and even more ubiquitous than conventional automobiles and perhaps even more efficient, self-driving cars have become the archetype of our future transportation," Foxx wrote. "Still, important concerns emerge. Will they fully replace the human driver? What ethical judgments will they be called upon to make?"
The passage is reminiscent of the 2004 film adaptation of "I, Robot," starring Will Smith. Smith plays a character who distrusts robots because he survived a crash in which a robot allowed a young girl to die because her survival was statistically less likely than his.
With fully autonomous technology, will vehicles be forced to choose who lives and who dies? Will machines facing unavoidable collisions make split-second decisions, as humans must, between veering left to strike one pedestrian or steering right to hit another?
Who will program the machines to make such ethical decisions? Will Congress have to enact laws to ensure life-or-death decisions made by machines are not based on a person's age, gender, race, ethnicity, sexual orientation or religious affiliation?
To date, discussion about regulation has mainly focused on testing of self-driving cars, Lipinski said. While the federal government sorts out what its role should be, some states and local municipalities have already adopted restrictions.
California, March 10 unveiled proposed new regulations that pave the way to issue permits for commercial use of driverless vehicles. There will be a public hearing and 45-day comment period before the rules are adopted. The laws are of particular interest to Silicon Valley-based companies like Google and Tesla Motors.
RELATED: California says autonomous vehicles don't need human drivers
Meanwhile, in December, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder signed what news accounts described as the nation's "most permissive" set of laws governing self-driving vehicles.
"Proponents say the laws are important for the state's economic development and talent retention," The Detroit News reported.
The industry, in general, would prefer minimal federal regulation, according to some analysts. States, after all, are trusted to enact their own policies for such practices as issuing drivers licenses.
While states move ahead with various regulations, people like Lipinski have to consider consistency at the federal level.
"I'm trying to figure out the best level of regulation," said Lipinski.
Obviously, safety is paramount. But to what degree should the autonomous technology industry be allowed to create its own standards to ensure safety? Too much federal regulation might discourage investment in innovative technology that would drive economic growth.
"We don't want to drive innovation out of the country," Lipinski said. "Right now, the United States is a leader in this technology. It could really help our economy. (Determining the proper amount of regulation) is not an easy balance to make."
