US Import Prices Post Largest Drop in Nine Months
U.S. import prices recorded their biggest drop in nine months in November on declining petroleum costs, with renewed dollar strength threatening to keep imported inflation subdued.
The Labor Department said Dec. 13 import prices fell 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised 0.4% gain in October. Last month's drop was the biggest since February and followed two straight months of increases.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices falling 0.4% last month after a previously reported 0.5% increase.
In the 12 months through November, import prices dipped 0.1%, the smallest decrease since July 2014, after slipping 0.3% in the 12 months through October.
The soft import price reading is unlikely to change expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates Dec. 14, given a tightening labor market and firming economy. The U.S. central bank's policy-setting committee was due to start its two-day meeting Dec. 13.
The Fed hiked its benchmark overnight interest rate last December for the first time in nearly a decade.
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies after the Dec. 13 data. Prices of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stock index futures were trading higher.
The dollar's surge against the currencies of the United States' main trading partners between June 2014 and January 2016 resulted in imported deflation, helping to keep inflation below the Fed's 2% target.
The greenback's rally appeared to fade for much of the year, easing some of the pressure on import prices. But the dollar resumed its upward move in the wake of Donald Trump's victory in the Nov. 8 presidential election. It has gained 3.5% on a trade-weighted basis since the election.
But with oil prices hovering around $50 per barrel and wages expected to accelerate as the labor market nears full employment, some of the dollar's drag on price pressures could be mitigated, allowing inflation to rise toward its target.
Imported petroleum prices dropped 4.7% last month, also the largest decline since February, after increasing 7.3% in October. That offset a 10.6% jump in imported natural gas prices.
Import prices excluding petroleum were unchanged after dipping 0.1% in the prior month.
The cost of imported food rose 1.5%. Prices for imported capital goods fell 0.2%, while the cost of imported automobiles slipped 0.1%. Imported consumer goods prices excluding automobiles fell 0.1% last month.
The report also showed export prices decreasing 0.1% in November after rising 0.2% in October. Export prices were down 0.3% from a year ago. That was the smallest decline since August 2014 and followed a 1.0% decline in October.
Agricultural exports increased 0.6% last month, driven by an 11.5% surge in vegetable prices. But prices for industrial supplies and materials exports fell 0.3%.
