Vocational Pop Surprises, Drives February’s Class 8 Orders
A number of trends underscored, but did not necessarily clarify, the recent gains, according to ACT Research Co., which held its spring seminar here March 20-22.
For instance, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for new orders of Class 8s in February was 276,000 units. That is up from an annualized three-month total of 241,000, a six-month total of 213,000 and a 12-month total of 194,000, according to ACT.
“A bunch of truckers who want trucks now” are driving the rapid expansion of the build plan, which is “going through the roof,” ACT President Kenny Vieth said.
Build plans are projected to reach 995 trucks a day in the second quarter, up from about 825 per day in the first quarter, he said, citing reports from truck makers.
Looking more closely at the demand, the change in new order market share among different types of equipment over the past four months (relative to the five-year average) saw sleeper tractors fall 11.1%, while day cabs were up 1.6% and vocational day cabs jumped 9.4%, ACT said.
“The vocational truck market has really ignited over the last four months. Not just on tax benefits and regulatory reform, but on that promise of infrastructure activity to come,” Vieth said. “Day cabs have done well, too. We see the justification in six months. It’s not that we didn’t see orders going where they went the last couple of months, they just got here two quarters before we thought they would be here."
Meanwhile, demand for sleepers has not exactly gone away. It has been increasing.
Over the past 15 years, tractor sleepers have accounted for 61.4% of the all tractors sold in the United States. The 10-year average is 61.2%, and the three-year average is 62.6%, according to ACT.
