ACT Plans Study on How Trucking Will Change In Next Decade
“Over the course of the next 10 years, we’re probably going to see sweeping changes in the business,” ACT analyst Jim Meil said.
“You’ll probably have to go as far back as 1974 to 1984 — years of deregulation, years of high-energy prices, years of significant, transformative change to the business — to get anything like what we’re going to encounter over next 10 years," he said.
Meil offered attendees at the firm’s biannual seminar here a preview of the “Vision 2025” study, which will develop a “most likely” base case for how the industry will evolve, along with plausible alternate paths.
He said the trend toward consolidation in trucking is likely to continue, driven by growing complexity in technology, regulatory compliance and best practices.
Intelligent vehicles and intelligent highways are technically viable within the next 10 years, but the technology will need to overcome hurdles such as regulatory, public and liability resistance before they can be implemented, Meil said.
ACT’s expectation is that crude oil prices will be lower and less volatile in the next 10 years than they were in the 2001-2014 timeframe, he added.
Nevertheless, the firm continues to see a place for natural gas. Meil said the regulatory push toward greenhouse-gas emissions reductions could help keep the alternative fuel on the industry’s radar screen.
The study also will examine the trend toward drivetrain integration at original equipment manufacturers.
“One of the tensions in the business right now is who is going to capture the profit margin in the engine and transmission, and who’s going to be dealing with the regulatory environment,” Meil said.
Independent suppliers will need to innovate in order to sustain their performance, or bypass the OEMs and sell directly to customers, perhaps through an aftermarket strategy, he suggested.
Meil said regulations also could provide a “powerful incentive” for truck and trailer makers to partner on vehicle designs.
The regulatory environment also could drive OEM consolidation, resulting in fewer trailer makers, and perhaps even fewer truck makers, he added.
