ACT Says Tractor Sales to Set Record, Sees Solid Year Ahead for Fleet Profits
ORLANDO, Fla. — Retail sales of new Class 8 tractors in the United States remain on pace to set a new record this year, according to a leading industry analyst.
Kenny Vieth, president of ACT Research Co., said sales in 2015 of heavy-duty tractors, excluding straight trucks, are forecast to surpass 208,000, topping the record of 201,200 set in 2006, ahead of new engine-emissions regulations.
Vieth, keynote speaker during the Technology & Maintenance Council’s fall meeting here on Sept. 22, also projected that 2016 will be “another good year” for freight demand and fleet profits.
“There are still pretty good times ahead,” Vieth told the luncheon crowd, while noting there likely will be a gradual slowdown in the second half of 2016 and into 2017.
He spoke several days after ACT issued a report showing that new Class 8 orders were about 20,200 in August, up slightly from a preliminary report earlier in the month but still down from a year earlier.
Separately, ACT also said new trailer orders were about 24,500 in August, up 21% from July but down 0.4% from a year earlier.
As for the broader economy, Vieth said he expects slow growth to continue. He said inflation remains tame and low fuel prices are giving a boost to truckers and consumers.
Vieth cited a number of possible headwinds, including a struggling global economy and a strong U.S. dollar, making exporting products abroad more difficult for manufacturers.
“The U.S. is the best house in a bad neighborhood right now,” Vieth said.
His outlook for fleets in the near term was upbeat, as continued trucker profitability will lead to greater cash flow that can be invested into buying new equipment.
Vieth projected all these additional new trucks on the road will begin to bring freight demand back closer to equilibrium with available trucks by the end of 2015.
“Capacity has been rising faster than we are adding freight,” he said. “More fleets driving more new trucks suggest a less lucrative for-hire market” because that supply is pressuring rates.
There already are signs of this transpiring in the marketplace, he said, including notable declines in recent months in spot-market freight rates.
Vieth told the technicians and service providers in attendance they will benefit from the trucks currently on the road, which on average are a full year older than a decade ago.
The result, Vieth said, is that these older trucks require far more maintenance than newer models.
