ATA Tonnage Down in December, But Other Trucking Data More Positive
Truck tonnage decreased 0.7% in December, the third and final year-over-year decline in 2016 in the monthly index from American Trucking Associations, but analysts and economists remain optimistic that 2017 will a better year for the industry.
Sequentially, tonnage fell 6.2% in December after a strong November in which the number rose 8.2% from October.
The preliminary seasonally adjusted tonnage index for the month was 133.8 while last month it was 142.7. The record is 144, set in February 2016. The index uses a base level of 100 for freight activity in the year 2000.
“The ups and downs that plagued most of 2016 continued in December,” said ATA's chief economist, Bob Costello. “I don’t recall a year in recent memory with so many large swings on a month-to-month basis.”
The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets, 133.9 in December, which was 1.6% below the previous month.
The Cass Freight Shipment Index dropped 1.2% sequentially but rose 3.5% on a year-over-year basis. The expenditures index fell 1.1% sequentially and was down 3.0% year-over-year. The index, which uses information from bill payments through a St. Louis bank, is primarily based on trucking but includes rail, air and barge freight.
“If the winter of the overall freight recession we’ve been in for more than a year and a half in the U.S. is not yet over, it is certainly showing promising signs of thawing,” wrote report author Donald Broughton, an analyst with Avondale Partners.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which tracks monthly changes in linehaul rates, declined 0.9% in December versus the same period in 2015, the tenth consecutive month of such declines.
“[Nevertheless] the current strength being reported in spot rates is leading us to believe that (our current -3% to 1% truckload pricing forecast) may need to be improved/moved to a slightly more positive outlook if the strength in spot rates continues long enough to move contract rates back into positive territory.”
The DAT North American Freight Index increased 8% in December, the sixth straight month of increased volume based on spot-market data on the company’s load boards. DAT industry analyst Mark Montague told Transport Topics that he believes the spot-market turning point occurred around May, when rates and volume began to come back up from the low point earlier in 2016. The index dropped on a year-over-year basis from January through July, but has since gone up every month since August.
E-commerce and grocery items contributed most to the December freight, according to the DAT report.
The ACT Research Co. For-Hire Trucking Index also posted a strong December, which while lower sequentially compared favorably to the same month in 2015. The results were derived from a survey of trucking companies and 50 denotes the dividing line between expanding or contracting economic conditions.
The volume index was 45.0, down sequentially from 53.8 in November and 45.7 in December 2015. The pricing index was 54.3, up from 52.1 one year ago but down from 55.1 last month. The capacity index was 52.5, up from 50.4 in December 2015, but down from 53.5 in November 2016. The productivity index was 47.1, up from 46.4 year-over-year, but down from 51.9 sequentially.
