Presidential Race Is Too Close to Call, Karl Rove Says

(SunJae Smith for American Trucking Associations)

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NASHVILLE, Tenn. — This upcoming presidential election is a once-in-a-generation contest that will ultimately be decided over key policy issues, political strategist Karl Rove told trucking executives Oct. 15.

During a keynote address at American Trucking Associations’ Management Conference & Exhibition, the former political adviser to President George W. Bush noted that national polls indicate neither major-party candidate is enjoying a strong lead with voters.

“We got a race on our hands, and if anybody tells you that they know how this thing is going to conclude — who’s going to win and lose — they’re kidding you and they’re kidding themselves,” he observed.

Rove stressed that issues specific to the economy, inflation and the border are central to voters, and he believes that former President Donald Trump has an opportunity to stand out compared with Vice President Kamala Harris on three issues, even as the contest remains too close to call.

Just weeks ahead of a pivotal election, #ATAmce24 welcomes Karl Rove—an iconic political strategist and one of the most sought-after political pundits of our time—who is providing an update on the state of the race and sharing his insights into the shifting political landscape. pic.twitter.com/4Zx2H7CoFM — American Trucking (@TRUCKINGdotORG) October 15, 2024

“These are big issues for him,” Rove said of Trump. “And if the campaign were focused on those and those alone, then he would win.”

Rove suggested that in the short time left before Election Day, the former president must make voters believe that he is the candidate best-equipped to address their concerns. As he put it, “He’s got to convince them he’s got a second act in him because he’s running for a second term. … So Donald Trump, if he wants to take advantage of the issues, he has got to stay focused on the issues. And by not doing so, he’s giving [Harris] an opportunity.”

Specific to fundraising, Rove acknowledged Harris holds a formidable lead over her opponent; according to closely watched campaign finance metrics, the Harris campaign has nearly doubled fundraising totals compared with the Trump campaign.

Ultimately, Rove affirmed the broader belief that the next occupant of the White House will primarily be decided in the seven battleground states front-and-center during this election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“She had the upper hand for weeks, but not enough that the contest was over,” Rove said. “He’s got an upper hand now, which — with the right actions — he can extend into a winning hand. But the discipline inside each of these campaigns is going to be critical coming down to the final 21 days.”

Turning his focus to Congress, Rove is convinced there will be a divided federal government after the November election. Democrats will hold an electoral advantage in the House, he said, while the Senate he anticipates will switch to Republican control. In the Senate, Democrats control 51 seats and Republicans control 49 seats. The Cook Political Report has classified three Senate contests — Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio — as toss-ups, with Republicans likely to pick up the seats in Montana and West Virginia.

In the House, Republicans hold a majority with 220 seats. Democrats governing in the minority hold 212 seats. About two dozen House seats are classified as toss-ups, per the Cook Political Report.

“I can say this,” Rove said. “We are likely — very likely — to have divided government. No matter who wins the presidency there’s likely to be a Republican Senate. And less likely, but still likely to be a Democratic House.”