The swirl of fresh coronavirus cases and growing risks to the global economy have some seasoned market strategists warning that U.S. growth could come to a halt this year and some Treasury yields may drop below zero for the first time.

Bond traders have a decent record when it comes to nailing the Federal Reserve’s path relative to official guidance. So while Chairman Jerome Powell says the policy rate is “in a good place,” history suggests his next move could align with what futures are showing — a rate cut.