Americans’ spending grew by more than previously reported in the third quarter, a change offset by a drag in inventories that left economic growth at a still-healthy but unrevised 2.1%.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy slowed to a modest growth rate of 1.9% in the summer as consumer spending downshifted and businesses continued to trim their investments in response to trade war uncertainty and a weakening global economy.

The likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months rose to 35% in an August survey of economists, from 31% forecast previously, as global trade tensions fuel economic uncertainty.

U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter by less than forecast as consumer spending topped estimates, though weaker business investment and exports underscored the risks spurring the Federal Reserve toward an interest-rate cut July 31.

Trade tensions likely helped push down U.S. economic growth last quarter to match the slowest pace of Donald Trump’s presidency, with a robust consumer spending keeping things from looking even worse.

Economic growth accelerated in the first quarter on a big boost from inventories and trade that offset slowdowns in consumer and business spending, with President Donald Trump touting the report as much stronger than expected.

U.S. economic growth cooled by more than initially reported last quarter on revisions to consumer and government spending, signaling mounting challenges to the expansion as it nears a record duration.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5% pace in the third quarter as consumers opened their wallets, businesses restocked inventories and governments boosted spending, marking the strongest back-to-back quarters of growth since 2014.

U.S. economic growth cooled last quarter as consumers pulled back after outsize spending in the prior period, though solid business investment cushioned some of the weakness and employee-compensation costs accelerated amid a tight job market.

The U.S. economy grew in the fourth quarter at a faster pace than last estimated, helped by an upward revision to household spending on services and a smaller drag from inventories, according to Commerce Department data released March 28.