Class 8 Truck Orders Stumble Again in November
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North American Class 8 truck orders in November continued to trend below year-ago levels, according to ACT Research.
Preliminary data showed an 11% decline to 37,200 units. This marked the sixth month this year in which orders fell compared with 2023, but orders increased 21% compared with October.
“We are still in the early stages of the industry’s building of 2025 backlogs, but through November, seasonally strong orders have made little progress in closing the backlog gap compared to year-ago levels,” said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research. “While up from October, orders were 11% below last November’s performance.”
ACT Research also noted that on a seasonally adjusted basis Class 8 truck orders jumped 42% sequentially to 34,800 units, representing an annual rate of 418,000. Medium-duty orders maintained a consistent rise into historically elevated truck and bus backlogs, but the report notes that trajectory has been slowly deflating.
Vieth
“The November Class 8 order increase to 33,221 units reflects both strong vocational demand and growing fleet confidence in a freight market recovery as we look toward 2025,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “While freight market challenges persist, the elevated level of orders we have seen over the past few months points to underlying market strength across all segments.”
FTR Transportation Intelligence reported Class 8 preliminary net orders for November decreased 7% year over year to 33,500 units. That still marked a sequential increase of 12%. The report also noted that orders were above seasonal expectations and that year-to-date net orders were up 9%.
Randall
“Despite a sluggish freight market, fleets have continued to invest in new equipment, mainly at replacement demand levels so far in 2024,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR. “We expect a modest rise in November backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month. Meanwhile, the election potentially could begin affecting the commercial vehicle market in the near term.”
Moyer added that the month-to-month increase in net orders might reflect some fleets choosing to place them after the election. But he also suspects that the election impact won’t end there with the announced plans to impose tariffs. He also noted that the commercial vehicle industry has been preparing for the Environmental Protection Agency’s GHG Phase 3 rule, which takes effect in model year 2027.
Treadway
“We are starting to see orders come in, starting with large fleets who are maintaining their discipline and their fleet rotation,” Kenworth Sales Co. President Kyle Treadway said. “I think it’s more than seasonal. It appears to be some pent-up demand. The election brought a lot of doubt in the marketplace, and now that’s been settled, there’s some definitive plans.”
Treadway said customers told him before the election that the GHG standards were impractical, and he believes the rule will be a major consideration when they decide to buy more equipment.
“There’s so many headwinds and tailwinds to this situation because everybody expects that there’s going to be a relaxation of the federal emissions requirements, the fuel-economy standards,” Treadway said. “So, does that mean that the pre-buy evaporates and goes away, or does it mean that we’re going to see a release of that pent-up demand. Both are kind of at play here, so I think a lot of doubt still remains.”
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