Sales of Used Class 8s Decline, But Prices, Demand Still Strong

This story appears in the July 7 print edition of Transport Topics.

The number of used Class 8 trucks sold fell 12% in May from April, but prices and demand remained strong for low-mileage trucks, analysts and dealers said last week.

“The volume drop was expected, since sales usually slow during the summer months,” said ACT Research Co. Vice President Steve Tam.

He said while dealers are seeing signs of fleet expansion, carriers are not necessarily trading in the same number of trucks they are buying.

“The result is potential perpetuation of a lack of desirable inventory in the used truck market,” Tam said. “Units that are making their way into used-truck inventory tend to be younger and have lower mileage than the industry has seen in a while.”

American Truck Dealers, meanwhile, reported that while used sleeper-cab prices dipped 2% in May to $58,874 from April’s record high, May’s level was the second highest in eight years and 12.3% over a year ago.

Prices slipped mainly because of a continued higher supply of late-model trucks into the retail and wholesale markets, said Chris Visser, an ATD analyst.

“Despite mild depreciation, pricing for individual trucks remains extremely strong,” Visser told Transport Topics.

Wholesale sleeper prices, including auction and dealer-to-dealer, rose 6.4% in May from April to $44,834 — and jumped 57% from $28,577 a year ago, Visser said.

Since March, there’s been a “substantial increase of late-model trucks in the 2010-12 model-year range,” thereby boosting prices after fleets returned to three-year trade-in cycles after the recession, Visser said.

During the economic downturn, many fleets skipped a trade-in year because they didn’t need new trucks.

After 2011, when the economy improved, many resumed three-year trade-in cycles, he said.

On the wholesale side, average mileage fell by more than 100,000 miles in May to 565,773, a 17.3% decline from a year ago. Mileage declined by 5.6%, or more than 33,000, from April, ATD figures showed.

“That’s an even more stark illustration of more late-model trucks coming into the wholesale market,” Visser said, adding that wholesale is a good proxy for supply and retail a proxy for demand.

He added that the availability of more later-year models — including 2011s and 2012s — has also helped to bolster prices.

“Anything under 600,000 miles is still a solid bet in the used-truck market, no matter what

the market is,” Visser added. “Pricing remains extremely strong, even though demand outstrips supply for low-mileage trucks.”

ATD forecasts depreciation for 2012 and 2013 models of about 1.5% to 2% per month through the end of the year, which is below the historical trend, he added.

Meanwhile, ACT’s figures showed that total Class 8 prices — auction, wholesale and retail for all types of trucks — were up 6% in May from April, to about $48,600, Tam told TT.

Average miles were 538,000 for a used heavy-duty truck, down about 2% from April and 4% from a year ago, ACT figures showed.

“Inventory is scarce, and fleets are talking about expansion,” Tam said, “so for every new truck sold, fleets are not [always] getting rid of their old trucks.”

The used-truck market has been generally strong, especially for low-mileage trucks, said Steve Clough, president of Kansas City-based Arrow Trucks, which has 16 locations across the United States.

“Generally, ACT indicated the long-term trend for pricing seems to be up, and it still seems to be,” Clough said. “Right now, the demand is still at least as strong, or stronger, than the supply.”

Some buyers want trucks without diesel particulate filters, Clough told TT.

He said there are still some 2007 trucks without DPFs available but with about 650,000 miles on them, “which is extremely low for that model year.”

Newer models, including 2012s, “are basically like 3-year old trucks,” he said. “You would expect their average miles to be 330,000 to 360,000, but many have 450,000 to 480,000, which is very high mileage [from] guys who were doing team driving.

“We’re starting to see more 2012s coming on the market . . . [but] there’s been a little bit of lag. Typically, we see them later in the year because fleets tend to be second-half buyers and turn in their older trucks then.”

One Midwest truck dealer agreed that lower-mileage equipment was leading demand.

“The market is good, if you have the right equipment,” with trucks that have less than 400,000 miles, said Jon McCoy, corporate vice president of used trucks for Truck Country, in Dubuque, Iowa.

“A lot of people don’t want to pay $130,000 for a new truck,” he told TT. “Our biggest challenge has been keeping enough inventory.”

On the flip side, fleets selling used trucks “are demanding a premium for them, too — the fleets that have them are looking for a big buck for them,” McCoy said.

Truck Country has 18 dealerships in Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio, including several under the Stoops Freightliner name, which it acquired last month and began operating last week.