Trailer Orders Slip 4% Year Over Year in November

Preliminary Data Shows Orders Reached 20,500 Units, Down Annually but Up 21.3% Over October's Total
Truck and Hyundai Translead trailer
ACT noted that the seasonally adjusted figure was 15,000 units, but that is about 22% above the seasonally adjusted intake for October. (Hyundai Translead)

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U.S. trailer orders experienced another month trending below the year-ago results in November, ACT Research reported.

Preliminary net data showed orders declined 4% year over year to 20,500 units. But they did increase 21.3% over the October total of 16,900. The only year-over-year increase in 2024 was a 37% rise in April.

“Since we’re still in the early stages of the traditional start to the order season, this month’s uptick was expected,” said Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research at ACT. “That said, and with the caution that one data point does not make a trend, perhaps November data are bearing witness to the anecdotal information about increased quotation activity that we have been hearing the past few months.”



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Jennifer McNealy

McNealy 

McNealy added the stickiness of this trend will be determined as more data arrive in the coming months. ACT noted that the seasonally adjusted figure at this point in the annual cycle lowers orders to 15,000 units, but that is about 22% above the seasonally adjusted intake for October.

“Typically speaking, the order books for the calendar year begin to firm up in August and September,” said Charles Willmott, principal CEO at WillGo Transportation Consulting. “That may have been the case in some limited number of instances this year. But for the most part, my impression is that capital expenditure decisions have been delayed this year because of general lack of confidence in future projections for 2025.”

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Charles Willmott

Willmott 

Willmott noted that an oversupply of trailers is suppressing demand. But he is optimistic that the imbalance is close to correcting itself. He even suspects the market could return to a six-year demand cycle like its historic norm before the Great Recession of 2007.

“We definitely felt, I think, what other people in the industry have called the Trump bump,” said Steve Bennett, president and chief operating officer at Utility Trailer Manufacturing Co. “Our November orders came in very strong for all products, and December is coming in strong as well.”

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Steve Bennett

Bennett 

Bennett noted that the strong order intake occurred across all models, but he is holding off on increasing build rates for next year to ensure the increased demand remains a trend. He also is anticipating a strong year ahead for refrigerated trailers, as private fleets that have been waiting on the sidelines start to make moves.

“There’s a lot of optimism in the marketplace right now,” said Brandon Lairsen, vice president of trailer leasing at Transport Enterprise Leasing. “It’s really the first time in two years that we’ve heard generally positive things from our customers and prospects. It seemed like in the month of October and early November, the wheels had just grinded to a halt for the most part. Now there is a lot more discussions.”

Lairsen also saw an uptick in utilization over the month of November. But he stressed that larger market forces related to utilization and capacity don’t just disappear because the election is over. He warned there is still too much capacity relative to demand.

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Brandon Lairsen

Lairsen 

“This peak holiday season has seen a drastic improvement compared to what forecasts were,” Lairsen said. “But that is all short term. That’s just for utilization of equipment for a couple months to deliver Christmas. I think after the first of the year, it’s going to be interesting to see when the hangover from all the election excitement sets in.”

Lairsen is still optimistic that the conditions are in place to put the trailer market on the rebound next year even with the uncertainties. But he also suspects it could take the first half of the year before the industry gets to a point in which freight demand actually picks up enough.

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“It’s nice to see [that] the seasonal uptick is occurring,” said Jeremy Sanders, chief commercial officer at Stoughton Trailers. “I’m happy we’ve seen some uptick in October and some uptick in November. Hopefully that trend continues because that indicates better health for the industry.”

Sanders added that the growth mostly came from larger fleets that have started to put in orders. He noted that some customers that have been hesitant to place orders are finally making moves. He also saw some more activity from the medium and small fleets, but they have been much more subdued in comparison.

“The November order volume for Hyundai Translead was in line with expectations and has continued to reinforce our plans for 2025,” Hyundai Translead CEO Sean Kenney said. “While quoting volume was higher post-election, there was no drastic order increase to indicate customers were holding orders pending the results. Our dealers have right-sized their inventories for the current market and are generally optimistic going into 2025.”

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