Rates will improve in 2025, however, as will volumes, FTR Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise said during the research group’s Q4 2024 Food Industry Economic and Transportation Update.

As carriers await an upturn in the freight environment, executives say they continue to seek efficiencies and prepare their fleets for when the tipping point comes.

FTR Transportation Intelligence expects truckload spot rates to rise 6.5-7% in 2025, Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise said in a presentation.

“We have a massive chess board,” said DTNA Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing David Carson, and his company is trying to move pieces around while waiting for freight rates to rise.

Demand and consequently output prospects for U.S. trailer manufacturers continue to dim, said Dan Moyer, FTR Transportation Intelligence senior analyst for commercial vehicles.

Speaking at the FTR Transportation Conference 2024 in Indianapolis, Dan Moyer said he would have expected build levels to decline, but that has not happened.

A timeline for a rebound in freight rates and market conditions remains muddy into the second half of 2024, according to executives and analysts.

Trucking’s lingering freight recession, combined with a steep decline in spot market rates for carriers over the last 18 months, is tightening capacity, according to FMCSA data and FTR Intel.

U.S. trailer orders fell year-over-year for the first time in five months in November and plunged more than 40% month-over-month, according to preliminary data released by ACT Research. 

Soaring diesel prices are likely to push more trucking companies out of business, especially smaller carriers, after casualties already spiked in the first two-thirds of the year.